Thursday, 14 May 2015

So What Really Happened To Our Motoring Safety?

So What Happened to Our Driving?

This first chart (fig1) is going to try to explain our journey from novice to experienced driver.
  It also explains why so many young drivers have such a high collision risk over experienced drivers. And it also explains why many experienced motorists would not pass the driving test, if required to do so again. This brings into question the age old beliefs that the more experience you have, the better driver you must be.
Fig1
Great driving is not based on experience but on technique. Truly great drivers can only be created by adding experience to solid motoring foundations.
  Adding experience to a poor technique does not develop a good driver. Many motorists have years of experience, but sadly it seems is wasted experience. To illustrate this point ‘White Van Man’ has more miles under his belt than most and yet he has developed a far higher collision risk than our average driver to become one of the ‘high risk’ groups of drivers on the road. So could it be possible, that contrary to popular belief, the more experience we get, the worse drivers we become?

Novice Driver

  At point 1 the novice driver has just taken up driving lessons, their collision risk would be high as they have yet to develop driving skills and experience. However, the novice collision risk here is contained in a controlled environment by the Driving Instructor (ADI) that keeps collision risk to a minimum. Novices driving without the constraints of an ADI have a higher collision risk.
  Between point 1 & 2 the ADI is working very closely with the novice to turn them into a real motorist, everything from basic vehicle control, steering, manoeuvres, junctions, traffic lights, roundabouts, effective observations etc. you get the picture. But the instructor is also trying to promote good attitudes, awareness, knowledge, confidence and responsibility into their driving to produce a well informed, safe and competent driver, who has in place, all of the safe guards to prepare them for today’s roads. This motorist is then tested on their knowledge and ability and if successful, given the green light. This young and inexperienced motorist has a collision risk that is probably going to be at the lowest point that it ever will be throughout their motoring lifetime. Lower than that of most experienced motorists. So what happened that gave them such high fatality rates?
  From point 2 though is where, in many cases it all goes tragically wrong. Free of the constraints of the ADI, the young and vulnerable motorist starts to make changes. Changes to their driving styles that inevitably result in the newly qualified driver (NQD), removing many of the motoring safe guards, the instructor had put into place. Observations and therefore awareness becomes weaker followed by a degradation in mirror and observational work, speed gets faster and so on.
  What results from this self re-education, is a collision risk of the newly qualified driver that rises rapidly and results in greater numbers of young drivers, being involved in serious collisions, which are out of proportion with the rest of the motoring community. Young motorists do have a higher collision risk than the average motorist, but they didn’t start out that way.
  From point 3 onwards, as experience kicks in, the collision risk of the NQD slowly starts to reduce, eventually settling around the same level as today’s experienced drivers. Many newly qualified drivers sadly never make it this far.
  As the novelty of the car begins to fade, it is increasingly used as a means to get from A to B rather than for recreational reasons. Collision risk begins to reduce and eventually settles around the average driver standard.
This is a journey that many of us should recognise.
  (Also at point 3, I have shown what happens to the collision risk of the average driver who made the decision to become an advanced driver, which is incidentally the same route I took).
   Had the novice only been told to keep the skills they had learned just after passing the test and then added experience to them, then our NQD’s could have been, the safest group of motorists on the road.
  The answer to reducing the casualty rates in young drivers is not making the driving test harder, or expecting the novice to have a minimum of 100 hours driving time with their instructor, this may have some minimal casualty reduction benefit, but not as much as desired as all that is likely to occur, is a delaying of the skills degradation process. But by preventing the degradation of skills that all too often happens just after passing the driving test, would yield the greatest possible casualty reduction in novice drivers.
  One way in which this could possibly be achieved, without hitting the young motorist too hard, is to adopt a process similar to that which ADI’s have to undergo, a ‘test of continued ability’ after 12 months whereby the novice has to re-take the driving test under the same stringent criteria. This is one possible way to inspire the novice driver to keep up his standard if he wishes to keep his licence.
  It also has to be said that many novice drivers do follow the ideal path, retain their skills and add experience to it. These are quite probably amongst the safest and best drivers on the road and yet, as they are grouped with the worst, they are unjustly punished by the insurance industry.
  Just to illustrate this point, some years ago, I had a group of friends who were probationary police officers. Before they were allowed to drive the liveried police vehicles, they were required to undergo a test of basic driving competence. One of the lads approached me, knowing I had been an ADI and asked if I would take him out for an assessment, which I did. I tested him on all aspects of his driving ability and made the appropriate corrections which took a further three or four hours, after which he got through the tests.
  Needless to say, I was approached by several more Police Officers who were in need of the same treatment. (I have to say at this point that at no time were any of these officers charged for these services).
  Anyway, one of the officers was a young female who was not very confident, as her driving had been the brunt of some jokes by her colleagues. One of her colleagues told me beforehand that she would probably be hard work. However, on taking her for her assessment, I found that she was not overly confident in her ability. At the end of the assessment though, I could find very little wrong with her driving ability that could not be put right within minutes. She had not long passed her driving test and yet her ability was far superior to that of her more experienced colleagues. She went on to pass the assessment with ease.

Experienced Driver

  Throughout all of this, the experienced driver is trundling along as he/she always has done. His driving style has developed quite a few errors by this point in time, which is reflected in their elevated collision risk. Errors such as speeding, weaker observational powers and so on have all made their contributions but a slower overall average speed has reduced the average motorist’s collision risk leaving him feeling that after all these years and all this experience, that he must be a good driver.

White Van Man

  Even though white van man has gained way more experience than most motorists on the road, he also possesses a disproportionately higher collision risk than the average motorist, why?
  Well, ‘Van Man’ has developed in the exact same way as the average motorist. ‘Van Man’ spends so much time on the road that he has developed a far more aggressive driving style. This is probably due to the pressures placed on him to meet targeted deliveries etc. In addition, he has also developed a far more lazy driving style than many other motorists with fewer observations included. Van mans speed may also be a little higher than average, this has all combined to create his higher than average collision rate.
  It just goes to show that our perception of what a real driver should be is impaired, most of us have no idea of what a motorist should be and much of the advice we give to young motorists, is dreadfully flawed. We should be pointing our critically blame laden fingers back at ourselves for a change and try to understand where we ourselves are getting it wrong.
  All of us at one point in time had driving perfection in the palms of our hands, only to let it go to eventually see our standard settle within the realms of motoring mediocrity.
  What it really meant, when we were told to go out and learn how to drive, was that we were expected to retain all of the skills and techniques we learned as novices and then, add experience to them. Over the years, as our experience grew, we were supposed to become more altruistic with our attitudes but sadly, it appears that its meaning has been somewhat lost down the years.
  It is interesting and worthy of note to explore what happened through this transition, to our risk of being involved in a collision.
  Every element of driving a vehicle defensively has been developed into a driving technique. For example, the reason why we push and pull a steering wheel as opposed to crossing hands, is so as we retain complete control of the steering, all of the time. When we cross our hands, at one point both hands will be on the same side of the steering wheel and then if we need to steer further, then one or both hands have to be repositioned. Now this repositioning may only take half a second longer, than if we were pushing and pulling the wheel as suggested, but if this error were to occur at 40 mph, you could have travelled an additional 30 feet before being able to steer again whilst correcting this mistake, over the motorist who was pushing and pulling. These sorts of distances can make huge differences in determining the motorist’s ability to avoid a collision. However, you will probably never find any statistics on collisions that have occurred due to this error. This is one scenario that I will now use to explain how speed cameras compensate for poor driving habits.
 
  A motorist drives in a 30mph limit at 40mph and is not in total control of the vehicles steering.
  Another vehicle pulls out in front of him 30 feet away; it takes him ½ a second to reposition his hands on the steering wheel to allow further steering, by which time he has travelled 30 feet. Too late, and the collision occurs just as he has regained control of the steering wheel.  
 
  The same vehicle at 40 mph in a 30 limit but with total control of the steering, when the same vehicle pulls out in front of him 30 feet away. He is now able to steer immediately giving himself a chance to avoid the collision.

Now with a speed camera present 
  The same vehicle at 30mph, not in control of the steering would travel a distance of approximately 22.5 feet before regaining control of the steering wheel, but would have a much lower impact speed and still has almost 8 feet left in which to steer.

  The same vehicle driving at 30mph, in full control of the steering has 30 feet to steer and stands the greatest chance of completely avoiding the collision.

  Effectively the speed camera, by forcing us to reduce our speed is in the same way, allowing a degree of compensation for all of the other errors that we make. 
  There are thousands of examples such as this one and driving instructors, will be able to give a potentially fatal scenario for virtually any driving error. So it is by no means unreasonable to conclude that many serious collisions are not caused because of speed alone, but because there are many other factors that contribute towards collision causation. If all that we see is the speed of a vehicle, then speed gets all of the blame. It follows therefore that by improving certain aspects of driving, other than that of speeding we can realistically reduce the chance of getting involved in a serious collision. Obviously keeping to the speed limits or below, currently gives us the greatest chance of reducing collisions, but expecting 28 million motorists to stop speeding is in reality, impossible. So the best practical way to reduce collisions is to address driver standard. This is where the philosophy behind this book can be summed up in one simple statement.

‘You can’t take the speed out of the motorist, but you can take the danger out of speed’.

  I am a firm believer that anyone expecting our nation of motorists, not to use a bit of excessive speed is living in dreamland. But what the statisticians say is occasionally right, speeding is dangerous and has been linked to many deaths and serious injuries. However, I also believe that mildly excessive speed will not actually increase the risk you present on the road exponentially (yes, I did get that out of the dictionary) provided that the other errors you make are reduced. This can be achieved relatively simply and quickly by instead of hammering down a little excessive speed that may influence a half percentage improvement in road safety, improve the basic standard of the motorist instead and influence a 5% improvement in their driving. This would allow most motorists to avoid speed camera activations whilst at the same time, helping to reduce road casualties. Or in other words, you can’t take the speed out of the motorist, but you can remove some of the danger out of speed.
  I have heard it said many times by motorists that they were penalised for speeding when they were driving on a perfectly safe road. The reality is that even a car that is parked on the road has an element of risk attached to it, as it becomes a hazard. There are no perfectly safe roads.
  Simply due to the presence of a vehicle on the road, risk exists. When you get into that vehicle, risk is then slightly raised and continues to climb as you pick up speed. Eventually, speed reaches a point whereby either, the limitations of the vehicle or the ability of the motorist get exceeded and total loss of control is inevitable. Because of the degradation of our driving skills, we all too often see these limitations being exceeded at speeds well within the posted speed limits. It is your basic driving standard that determines how sharply that ‘speed risk’ rises.
  As you progress through the book it will become abundantly clear, that most collisions are caused because the motorist failed to see the potential of a hazard or failed to see the hazard itself. Then when the collision occurs, the severity of that collision is then determined by the speed at which the vehicle was travelling at. However, if the hazard was spotted because of good hazard perception skills, then the collision is far more easily avoided and what could have been a fatal road traffic collision now becomes a non incident, with no change to the motorists’ use of speed.

Did you know that the average cost that a fatal road traffic collision incurs, is now heading towards £1.5 million and a serious injury collision around £400,000.

  Use of speed though has to be reasonable, irrespective of whether it is excessive or inappropriate, go beyond the boundaries of reason and you enter the realms of information overload, where there, you start prioritising hazards instead of dealing with them all.